For five years, the Mediterranean Institute and the Circle of the Economists combined their efforts to claim a further economic integration of the countries of the South and North of the Mediterranean.  This is why they had estimated the surplus of annual growth tied to this stronger relationship between countries, to approximately 1% per year for the countries of the South and 0.3% for those of the North. This would require open codes of investment of liberalization of the markets and in particular of the agricultural markets and services. They had also expressed their wish to see creating a specific financial institution intended to favour the transfers of funds.

Today, conscious of the global economic situation and concerned to see it deteriorate in the years 2010 – 2011, they underline the major impact that this shock could have on the Mediterranean countries. These difficulties were highlighted in the latest report of FEMISE.  Although growth continues in a certain number of countries of the South Mediterranean, but at a much lower level than previous years. This deterioration plays a fundamental role on the intervention capabilities of different factors, including central banks, endangering at the same time in the long term the solvency of certain Sovereign states, the employment markets and policies against poverty.  All this would obviously not be without the risk for a social and political equilibrium in the Region.

Within this logic, the Mediterranean Institute and the Circle of Economists stress the absolute necessity to finally implement regional Mediterranean policies. The priority is simple: to establish a vast market allowing to balance at much higher levels than those nowadays, supply and demand of goods and services.  This requires to cross in a significant way a decisive stage in monetary integration.  Beyond the existent, it is necessary to promote the establishment of stable exchange rates between main currencies of the region, mainly around the euro; this passes by the establishment of an institutionalized device which allows making use of solidarity between central banks of the region. These devices can take various forms but must in the long term consolidate a monetary zone to promote regional exchanges.

The Mediterranean Institute and the Circle of Economists also remind their wish to see the creation of a Mediterranean Development Bank which, alone, would allow to bring a true answer to the problems of financing of the economies particularly of SMEs, essential gateway for job creation.

Parce que les questions économiques sont aujourd’hui sous les feux de l’actualité, qu’il ne faut pas rester sous la pression exclusive du futur proche et que l’on ne peut envisager la sortie de crise sans se projeter dans l’avenir.

Parce que les quatre grandes questions qui vont se poser à l’échelle planétaire et déterminer ces nouveaux équilibres sont :

• Les rééquilibrages de la production de biens et services et donc de l’activité économique,
• Le financement de l’économie mondiale,
• Les flux migratoires,
• Les transformations dans les modes de répartition de la valeur ajoutée et des revenus ainsi que les transferts intergénérationnels (retraite, santé) et entre grandes zones géographiques.

Parce que dans la croissance potentielle, il y a deux variables, les gains de productivité d’une part, qui sont liés à l’innovation, et l’évolution de la population active d’autre part. Ces deux variables sont largement déterminées par les investissements liés aux nouvelles formes d’activités (énergie renouvelable, santé, éducation). C’est la raison pour laquelle seules des expertises dans ces domaines permettront de penser le nouvel équilibre mondial.

Enfin, parce que les politiques publiques du monde entier devront désormais imaginer les moyens de faire face aux dépenses liées à une réorganisation profonde des marchés. Finalement, la question qui lie économie, croissance, démographie et finance est celle-ci : où va désormais naître la richesse, comment va-t-elle se répartir, qui sera en charge de ces nouveaux équilibres ?

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